Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 10597 | 45798 | 337 | 98 | 286 | 464 |
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| February 05 2021 | 10707 | 46044 | 341 | 101 | 318 | 436 |
| February 06 2021 | 10743 | 46121 | 342 | 101 | 289 | 432 |
| February 07 2021 | 10767 | 46180 | 343 | 101 | 292 | 417 |
| February 08 2021 | 10782 | 46255 | 343 | 101 | 284 | 412 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.4 | 8.1% | 23 | 0.2% | 33 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 3.1 | 13% | 37 | 0.27% | 50 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 8.6 | 28.9% | 82 | 0.39% | 104 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.0 | 13.7% | 39 | 0.29% | 58 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.9 | 12.3% | 35 | 0.33% | 55 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.1 | 7.4% | 21 | 0.17% | 41 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 7.4% | 21 | 0.18% | 36 | 0.31% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.0 | 9.2% | 26 | 0.25% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 15 | 28.4 | 100% | 284 | 0.27% | 412 | 0.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 6833 | 26966 | 205 | 80 | 176 | 290 |
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| February 05 2021 | 6888 | 27146 | 209 | 84 | 178 | 246 |
| February 06 2021 | 6902 | 27191 | 209 | 86 | 165 | 245 |
| February 07 2021 | 6910 | 27245 | 210 | 86 | 141 | 229 |
| February 08 2021 | 6917 | 27274 | 211 | 86 | 130 | 224 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.4% | 7 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.3 | 16.2% | 21 | 0.25% | 30 | 0.36% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.6 | 14.6% | 19 | 0.27% | 32 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.8% | 14 | 0.17% | 33 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.0 | 14.6% | 19 | 0.24% | 31 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 2.1 | 16.2% | 21 | 0.22% | 38 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 14 | 0.17% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 11.5% | 15 | 0.21% | 26 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 7 | 12.0 | 100% | 130 | 0.2% | 224 | 0.35% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 5135 | 18003 | 217 | 71 | 129 | 222 |
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| February 05 2021 | 5179 | 18131 | 221 | 73 | 136 | 195 |
| February 06 2021 | 5183 | 18154 | 220 | 72 | 124 | 177 |
| February 07 2021 | 5188 | 18177 | 221 | 72 | 101 | 164 |
| February 08 2021 | 5192 | 18195 | 221 | 72 | 84 | 156 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 6% | 5 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 0.9 | 9.5% | 8 | 0.15% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.3 | 14.3% | 12 | 0.27% | 20 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.5% | 8 | 0.15% | 17 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | -1 | 0.6 | 10.7% | 9 | 0.18% | 21 | 0.42% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.6 | 19% | 16 | 0.24% | 27 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.0 | 14.3% | 12 | 0.19% | 20 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.6 | 16.7% | 14 | 0.22% | 22 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 4 | 8.3 | 100% | 84 | 0.19% | 156 | 0.34% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 11774 | 49361 | 339 | 74 | 495 | 672 |
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| February 05 2021 | 11869 | 49775 | 341 | 74 | 452 | 652 |
| February 06 2021 | 11893 | 49892 | 342 | 74 | 435 | 614 |
| February 07 2021 | 11905 | 49965 | 341 | 74 | 402 | 606 |
| February 08 2021 | 11918 | 50045 | 341 | 74 | 271 | 536 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.1 | 6.6% | 18 | 0.15% | 35 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 4.0 | 14% | 38 | 0.23% | 91 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 5.1 | 17.3% | 47 | 0.22% | 123 | 0.58% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 3.9 | 18.5% | 50 | 0.37% | 80 | 0.59% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.9 | 13.7% | 37 | 0.27% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 3.0 | 12.5% | 34 | 0.24% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 11.1% | 30 | 0.21% | 46 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 6.3% | 17 | 0.13% | 33 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 13 | 23.6 | 100% | 271 | 0.23% | 536 | 0.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 38085 | 312902 | 1157 | 251 | 1007 | 1522 |
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| February 05 2021 | 38487 | 314043 | 1162 | 256 | 1135 | 1543 |
| February 06 2021 | 38588 | 314338 | 1168 | 256 | 1192 | 1510 |
| February 07 2021 | 38669 | 314788 | 1172 | 256 | 1069 | 1476 |
| February 08 2021 | 38768 | 315252 | 1176 | 256 | 1061 | 1483 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.3 | 4% | 42 | 0.07% | 71 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 28.6 | 23.8% | 252 | 0.35% | 313 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 33.0 | 31.1% | 330 | 0.32% | 453 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 11.1 | 11.3% | 120 | 0.16% | 176 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 9.4 | 9% | 96 | 0.15% | 154 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 11.0 | 10.8% | 115 | 0.18% | 177 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.0 | 5.6% | 59 | 0.11% | 85 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.4 | 4.4% | 47 | 0.1% | 54 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 99 | 106.9 | 100% | 1061 | 0.19% | 1483 | 0.27% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 02 2021 | 544260 | 2512757 | 24460 | 5937 | 12408 | 19858 |
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| February 05 2021 | 548221 | 2527562 | 24734 | 6020 | 13003 | 18050 |
| February 06 2021 | 549155 | 2531066 | 24824 | 6052 | 12609 | 17303 |
| February 07 2021 | 549826 | 2534922 | 24885 | 6054 | 11478 | 16855 |
| February 08 2021 | 550369 | 2538097 | 24919 | 6055 | 10454 | 16452 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 36 | 64.4 | 6.3% | 656 | 0.1% | 1025 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 88 | 152.3 | 14.2% | 1483 | 0.2% | 2271 | 0.3% |
| 20-29 | 110 | 164.1 | 16.3% | 1700 | 0.22% | 2612 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 91 | 147.0 | 14.4% | 1507 | 0.2% | 2378 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 61 | 140.3 | 13.6% | 1417 | 0.2% | 2331 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 81 | 145.7 | 14.2% | 1482 | 0.18% | 2377 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 46 | 115.9 | 11.3% | 1186 | 0.16% | 1831 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 30 | 99.4 | 9.8% | 1023 | 0.16% | 1627 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 543 | 1029.1 | 100% | 10454 | 0.18% | 16452 | 0.28% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.4 | 36.8 | 49.7 | 28.4 | 34.6 | 26.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34.6 | 12 | 24.3 | 19.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34.5 | 8.3 | 19.6 | 21.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.3 | 55 | 57.8 | 23.6 | 44.3 | 17% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.1 | 44 | 43.6 | 106.9 | 122 | 24.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.3 | 30 | 34.5 | 1029.1 | 1463.9 | 20.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5182"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges